Sustaining Pakistan’s Economy through Strategic Gas Planning and Predictive Analytics
Download| Volume 5 Issue 2, 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Author(s): |
Muhammad Hassan Kamal
Sohaib Uz Zaman
Syed Hasnain Alam
Muhammad Iqbal (Corresponding Author)
Altantuya Dashnyam
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| Abstract | Natural gas is widely recognized in Pakistan as a vital driver of economic growth and development. This study focused on modeling future gas consumption (GC) in Pakistan by analyzing data on GC, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and population from 1972 to 2020. The analysis revealed a strong correlation between GC and both population and GDP across major sectors. Specifically, the correlation between GC and population was 0.991 (household), 0.954 (commercial), 0.977 (industrial), 0.936 (fertilizer), and 0.914 (power). Similarly, correlations with GDP were 0.961 (household), 0.898 (commercial), 0.905 (industrial), 0.875 (fertilizer), and 0.877 (power). These findings highlight that both population and GDP are significant determinants of gas consumption trends in Pakistan's key economic sectors. To forecast future GC, multiple linear regression and polynomial modeling techniques were employed. The polynomial model demonstrated the best goodness-of-fit for predicting future demand. According to this model, Pakistan's gas demand is projected to reach 1,641,152 mmcft in 2025, 1,847,357 mmcft in 2030, 2,063,034 mmcft in 2035, and 2,288,181.8 mmcft by 2040. These projections underscore the growing importance of planning and sustainable management of natural gas resources to meet future needs. The study contributes valuable insights for policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders, aligning with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting energy sustainability. Understanding sector-specific consumption trends and future demand can enhance national strategies for efficient gas production, distribution, and consumption planning across Pakistan. |
| Keywords | Gas Consumption, Gross Domestic Product, Strategic Planning, Polynomial Model, SDGs, Gas Consumption |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 5 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Type | Research paper, manuscript, article |
| Recognized by | Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, HEC | Category | "Y" | Journal Name | ILMA Journal of Social Sciences & Economics | Publisher Name | ILMA University | Jel Classification | - | DOI | ISSN no (E, Electronic) | 2790-5896 | ISSN no (P, Print) | 2709-2232 | Country | Pakistan | City | Karachi | Institution Type | University | Journal Type | Open Access | Manuscript Processing | Blind Peer Reviewed | Format | Paper Link | http://ijsse.ilmauniversity.edu.pk/arc/Vol5./pdf/v2/6.pdf |